Spread of yellow fever virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2015-16: a modelling study
M. Kraemer, N. Faria, R. Reiner, N. Golding, B. Nikolay, S. Stasse, M. Johansson, H. Salje, O. Faye, G. William Wint, M. Niedrig, F. Shearer, S. Hill, R. Thompson, D. Bisanzio, N. Taveira, H. Nax, B. Pradelski, E. Nsoesie, N. Murphy, I. Bogoch, K. Khan, J. Brownstein, A. Tatem, T. Oliveira, D. Smith, A. Sall, O. Pybus, S. Hay, S. Cauchemez
17
March
2017
Output type
Location
Democratic Republic of Congo
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Topics
Ebola
Since late 2015, an epidemic of yellow fever has caused more than 7334 suspected cases in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including 393 deaths. We sought to understand the spatial spread of this outbreak to optimise the use of the limited available vaccine stock. The authors jointly analysed datasets describing the epidemic of yellow fever, vector suitability, human demography, and mobility in central Africa to understand and predict the spread of yellow fever virus. We used a standard logistic model to infer the district-specific yellow fever virus infection risk during the course of the epidemic in the region.
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