Predicting COVID-19 Infection Among Older Syrian Refugees in Lebanon

Older refugees, exposed to a cluster of biological and social vulnerabilities, are more susceptible to COVID-19 infection and its complications. This study developed and internally validated a predictive model estimating COVID-19 infection risk among older Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Additionally, it described the barriers to PCR testing among those who reported a COVID-19 infection.

This is thought to be the first study that exclusively incorporates social determinants into a prediction model of COVID-19 infection among older Syrian refugees.

The findings could be used to inform targeting efforts by humanitarian organizations to provide assistance to Syrian refugees at higher risk of COVID-19 infection or infections in future pandemics. It will be important for humanitarian organisations to continue outreach efforts outside of informal tented settlements into the community to reach the most vulnerable to COVID infection with interventions. Furthermore, intensifying awareness campaigns among Syrian refugees will be essential to control infectious diseases in future pandemics.