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Principal Investigators: Stefan Flasche, LSHTM & Francesco Checci, LSHTM

Purpose

The study aims to identify effective and cost-effective pneumococcal vaccination strategies for crisis affected
populations. Specifically, the research will:
1) identify optimal mass pneumococcal vaccination strategies that reduce disease burden in displacement, rural and urban crisis scenarios;
2) estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness of these strategies; and
3) quantify the global theoretical pneumococcal vaccine need for humanitarian uses

Expected Outcomes

The project is expected to have the following main outputs:
1) A quantification of the absolute and relative/differential effect of PCV vaccination strategies in terms of cases averted, for each vaccination strategy considered, and in three model scenarios that we believe represent the main typologies of crisis that populations with high pneumococcal burden experience;
2) A cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative vaccination strategies, based on the model outputs as in (1);
3) Recommendations on optimal PCV vaccination strategies in a discrete set of generic crisis typologies, based on (1) and (2);
4) A calculation of the annual doses of PCV required to best reduce burden of disease across current crises, based on (3), and of the approximate burden of pneumococcal disease avertable through vaccination or other interventions in crises.
Additional outputs will include:
5) A unique quantification of social mixing and nasopharyngeal carriage patterns in a displaced, overcrowded population, providing a basis for further work on disease control strategies in such populations, including for other pathogens;
6) A readily transferable, general model to estimate pneumococcal carriage, disease burden and the potential benefit of vaccination in other crisis settings, helping to tailor strategies and prioritisation decisions to specific contexts.

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