Integration of the science of high probability unpredictable hazards into disaster reduction programmes: Lessons from West Sumatra

The scientific and humanitarian communities possess a wealth of knowledge and skills which have the potential to have a significant impact on Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). However this potential remains largely unexploited because of the lack of communication between the two communities.

The humanitarian community is a key actor in the effort to initiate risk reduction activities. However, for NGOs to summon support for these activities, a quantified assessment of risk, which can only emerge from science, must be made available to them. Scientific risk assessments of geophysical hazards such as earthquakes and tsunamis are often uncertain. Uncertainties which relate to the timing and detail of these events should not, however, detract from the value of scientific forecasts of high probability, high-impact events; we know they will happen, we largely know where and they will destroy communities.

A greater understanding of how agencies access, absorb and respond to scientific research pertaining to geophysical hazards could potentially lead to the implementation of mechanisms which have long term benefits towards the development of more robust mitigation and preparedness procedures.

Objective

The project aims to holistically explore how an indigenous NGO 'KOGAMI' has accessed and absorbed scientific research pertaining to developments in forecasting high probability unpredictable geophysical events, which threaten the west coast of Sumatra.

The project will be framed around a forensic examination of the KOGAMI case where non-controversial science is being disseminated at community level while being simultaneously studied in the context of community dynamics, perceptions and preparedness. Project partner UUGeophys has been involved in international collaborations concerned with understanding the threat from future great earthquakes and tsunamis which threaten Indian Ocean countries and western Sumatra. These collaborations have produced extremely detailed pictures of the likely next earthquake which will occur under the sea west of Sumatra generating a tsunami which could be more devastating than the 2004 event. As a result of this clear threat and the science leading to its strong mitigation, UUGeophys has made a research commitment in recent years to assess the effectiveness of the translation of this focused science into public awareness in Padang and Bengkulu, another at-risk city. A database of hundreds of interviews and questionnaires relating to the uptake of scientific information and general preparedness at community level in these cities has been collected and is being analysed. This database will form one of the central resources for this project.

Outcomes

The project will determine which mechanisms have contributed most to KOGAMI's responsiveness to scientific developments and with what impact on community resilience to natural hazards. This insight along with a critical view of the shortcomings in this process will help develop generic mechanisms which will inform how collaborations between the humanitarian and scientific communities can more effectively contribute to better disaster risk reduction policies and practices.

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